Australia has been known to be one of the most bushfire-prone countries in the world, with damages caused by this natural disaster escalating to devastating levels in recent years. According to the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), the country is now faced with a looming threat of transitioning into El Niño during winter in 2023, with more than double the normal likelihood of occurrence1. This event is set to peak in spring and summer, inducing warmer-than-average temperatures particularly in the southern and eastern parts of the continent.
In Australia, bushfires have been the root cause of numerous insured losses, with the southeastern regions being at high risk. The 2019/2020 bushfire season is also marked as one of the most catastrophic years in terms of loss, resulting in 33 fatalities and $1.4 billion in claimed figures. The states of New South Wales, Victoria, and South Australia bore the brunt, accounting for 71%, 17%, and 12% of the industry loss, respectively2.
El Niño years, typically associated with warmer temperatures, pose an even greater risk to Australia's bushfire threats. Previous statistics indicate that 40% of bushfire losses occurred during this period, when weather conditions are "hotter, drier, and more settled." With decreased cloud cover and lower levels of rainfall, maximum temperatures increase, resulting in a higher frequency of high fire danger ratings and the risk of a significant fire danger season in southeast Australia.
The looming threat of the El Niño event in 2023, given Australia's current vulnerability, reinforces the need for measures to mitigate the worsening and destructive impact of bushfires.
In Australia, changes during El Niño could include:
- Reduced rainfall for eastern Australia.
- Warmer daytime temperatures for the southern two-third of Australia.
- Increased risk of extreme heat.
- Increased bushfire danger in south-eastern Australia.
- Increased frost risk linked to clear skies at night.
- A later start to the northern wet season.
- Reduced tropical cyclone numbers.
DSH Insurance advice:
It is important for our policyholders to understand how their insurance cover could respond in the event of weather events caused by El Nino, such as bushfires. Maintaining your property is your first
line of defence against extreme weather conditions.
It’s also important to read your policy documents and relevant Product Disclosure Statements so you are aware of exactly what you are covered for. Consider whether you are in a position to invest in resilience measures, we can always adjust your policy and the premium to reflect this investment.
For more information and to track weather alerts visit Bureau of Meteorology website
[1] What is El Niño and what might it mean for Australia? (bom.gov.au)
[2] Be Prepared: Climate Change and the SA Bushfire Threat | Climate Council
- Increased bushfire danger in south-eastern Australia.
- Increased frost risk linked to clear skies at night.
- A later start to the northern wet season.
- Reduced tropical cyclone numbers.
For more information and to track weather alerts visit Bureau of Meteorology website